如何把握现阶段市场热点

提要：目前市场热点格局呈现出百花齐发但是切换过快的特征，我们认为这是由于现阶段游资暂时主导市场格局，基金等主流机构做多态度还不坚决导致的。但基金的这种观望态度可能会随着政策面进一步明朗而改变，市场热点格局也将随之出现调整。

一、目前热点格局分析

目前阶段的热点格局普遍呈现切换快，持续性热点主线不明显(前期除农业和奥运外)，投资者跟踪热点难度大的状况。而造成这种热点格局的主要原因很可能是由于市场主流资金的预期还没有完全明确，基金暂时处于观望状态及游资主导热点炒作。

首先，从近期的市场情况来看，虽然政策面出现转暖信号，但是大部分基金显然还处于一个观望状态，其也在等待宏观政策面因素的进一步明朗，这决定以基金为主的机构资金推动热点发展的局面还没有形成。

但是部分先知先觉的游资显然已经开始转变其预期，成为市场热点的主要制造者。游资的操作特性也就决定其必然以题材股为主要目标，采取较为快速的波段式操作。在这种机构资金行为模式下，不难看出为什么目前市场热点格局呈现以奥运等题材股为主，市场热点切换频密并且层出不穷。同时由于很少出现一个对市场有足够影响力，可以彻底改变格局的中长期主热点，给部分投资者带来一定困扰。

二、市场热点结构转变的契机

根据以上分析，未来市场热点结构切换将取决于基金何时大规模主动入场，而这和宏观经济和政策面的进一步确立是密切相关的。我们认为7月中旬召开的中央经济工作会议是一个重要契机。按照媒体报道，这将是对下半年经济政策的一次布局，很可能涉及到宏观调控诸多重要方面，货币、汇率以及产业政策都可能有一些调整，而这些信号对市场主力行为的影响很可能是决定性的。

近期中央领导人的一系列地方调研工作，也很可能是为宏观政策的调整而准备的，意味着管理层的具体政策措施很可能会出现一些新情况。我们认为，政策基调的调整和新的政策举措出现，将改变市场机构对整体格局的看法，促使市场对不同板块重新认识，产生一次行为预期偏差下的纠偏行为，很可能成为未来阶段性行情中最具爆发力的题材之一。

按照目前的情况，我们提醒投资者重点关注资源价格体系重新定位和宏观调控力度调整以后，和资源价格体系调整密切相关的行业，以及因为紧缩预期过度而可能被过度错杀的板块，可能成为预期偏差下具有最大价值空间的领域。

三、预判主力行为和事件发展挖掘中线热点

从资金行为的角度考虑，我们应优先思考基金和场内游资主力可能关注的重点，以及未来行为模式。

对于基金而言，一旦其预期改变，业绩增长较快、基金重仓股、估值都是其考虑选择范围的一些主要要素。从这个角度来看，被错杀的周期性行业、中报业绩增长较快的行业、估值相对偏低的行业和个股应是基金重点考虑的范围。

对于游资来说，题材有吸引力和丰富想象空间、股本较小以及股价绝对水平、阶段性跌幅大则可能是其考虑的重点。站在这一角度来看，和近期主要事件比如奥运、农业、大非承诺延期等等都可能在游资的注意范围内。另外，近期上海本地国企的大规模借壳行为，是否会引起游资的关注和引发一波本地股行情，也值得我们关注。

　　
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