尾市暴跌有何玄机？

　　提要：农业股大幅跳水诱发市场情绪波动，短线获利盘平仓是周四尾盘指数跳水的唯一原因。农业、奥运两大题材股中流出的投机资金不会就此流出市场，其它题材股、金融、地产板块的蓝筹股都可能成为投机资金的目标，因此，当前存量资金不会流失，增量资金陆续有来，预计市场消化短线获利盘后将继续反弹行情。



　　周四较重要的市场信息有：1、6月贸易顺差同比下降约20%；2、官方消息人士确认6月CPI同比涨7.1%；3、据统计，在过去的一段时间内40家上市公司被原股东及高管逆势增持；4、银河证券一份统计表明，截至7月7日，市场存量资金从今年初的1.4万亿元下降至9000亿元；开放式股票方向基金仓位为62.51%，创下历史性新低。



　　贸易顺差下降符合投资人预期，对市场短期走势没有影响，但是，出口的持续下滑必将影响整个经济的发展，中央高层已充分意识到这一点，近日政府各大员奔赴各沿海经济区调研金融和外贸情况，比较严峻外贸形势可能对接下来的政府政策产生影响，预计可能的政策变化对于股市而言是积极的。



　　CPI连续两个月下降，加息压力减缓，考虑到经济减速和热钱涌入两个重要的问题与通胀相比同样突出，预计在最高层决策干预下，央行动用货币政策抑制通胀的意愿在年内都难以实现。笔者认为，市场完全不必担心加息问题。



　　上市公司高管和股东增持股份、股票型基金仓位接近规定的最低值60%，从两个方面说明了市场处于相对低位：一方面，说明上市公司股价比较便宜，吸引了对公司了解最深的管理层和大股东买入；另一方面，说明主力机构有较大的做多余力，博奕层面看对多头有利。



　　相信上述基本面和政策面的信息对于多头而言是好消息。博奕层面看，近日连续回升的指数令空头承受了极大的压力，不断有空翻多者反手做多。这种情况下，周三尾盘的跳水走势不足为虑，农业股大幅跳水诱发市场情绪波动，短线获利盘平仓是指数跳水的唯一原因。农业、奥运两大题材股中流出的投机资金不会就此流出市场，其它题材股、金融、地产板块的蓝筹股都可能成为投机资金的目标，因此，当前存量资金不会流失，增量资金陆续有来，预计市场消化短线获利盘后将继续反弹行情。短线而言，周五下跌空间有限。 

　　
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