还要再忍受一段时间的低估值运行

市场在无明确利好的情况下，依靠自身力量走出了超跌反弹的行情。在遭受利空打击，人气低迷，且在普遍预期指数还将继续寻底之旅的情况下，市场能够止跌回升出现强劲反弹，既出大多数人的意料又合乎情理。一方面，宏观数据依然严峻，通胀压力不减，市场敢于此时逆势而上，多少让市场人士疑惑;另一方面，市场在跌破3000点之后，连续大幅杀跌，期间鲜见像样的反弹，在低位出现强劲反弹，也符合市场内在的机理需求。

A股估值已迅速回落到合理甚至略有低估状态。美国市场近50年历史表明，15--20倍的全市场平均市盈率水平，将产生出10%的复合收益率的长期投资机会。当然，在收获之前似乎还要再忍受一段时间的低估值运行。导致市场可能会持续一段时间低估值的主要因素包括高通胀、高成本的情况下降低企业盈利增速;产业资本改变传统的博弈格局、历史经验需要重新检验等。但这些并不妨碍寻找阶段性、局部性机会。

从实际减持数据来看，限售股东减持行为更多是逢高减磅，而不是追涨杀跌，随着市场的下跌，其减持的意愿在下降，也就是说限售股更多是抑制大盘的上涨，而不是加速大盘下跌;同时大非减持比例显著低于小非。另外，对于有投资价值的股票，大小非减持的意愿并不是很强，近期陆续有限售股东自愿提高减持门槛，这也意味产业资本和金融资本博弈的平衡点逐渐来临。

在具体的投资策略中，能源是最主要的一条投资主线。目前全球经济动荡不安，诸多不确定性看似纷繁复杂、难以把握，但去繁化简，一切问题的根结在于：全球经济增长面临可持续性问题，原油是明确凸现出来的短板。高能源价格将会持续相当长一段时间。在此形势下，可坚定看好大能源的投资主线，包括替代资源、节能降耗;符合“低碳排放”的消费产品和模式。

中国已正式告别以低要素价格参与全球竞争的年代，很多行业龙头公司具有一体化的成本优势，利润向大企业集中的趋势非常明显，且相当多的行业龙头个股估值都已跌到10多倍，就自下而上的投资策略而言，市场的下跌正是投资这些龙头公司的良机。

　　
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